The 2024 election is heating up and is dominating both the news cycle and cocktail party conversations in Washington (yet again).  Every four years, this is about the time when our clients and friends start asking us if a Presidential election impacts the real estate market in the DMV.  The answer depends on a few factors, but traditionally the answer is yes, just not for the reasons most people predict.  

There is turnover for any election, not just Presidential elections.  Political appointees, staffers, advisors and of course the politicians themselves move in and out of the area depending on the race outcomes.  It is widely believed that the turnover gives a boost to the market. The reality is that many people in the political world are already living in the DC area and go between public and private sectors depending on who is in office.

Those who are moving into the area for a specific candidate often decide to rent because they don’t know how long they will be in office, or they decide to stay in the area and buy after a year or two.  

So what DOES impact the housing market? Let’s dive in.

Uncertainty and Negative Press

One of the primary ways in which election years can impact the real estate market is through uncertainty. Political changes and policy proposals can create a sense of uncertainty among all consumers (not just in the real estate space), leading some potential buyers and sellers to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach. Regardless of political party or outcome, we tend to see everyone take a collective sigh of relief when the negative political ads and tension are over. 

These factors can result in a temporary slowdown in real estate activity as people hold off on making major financial decisions until after the election. This is especially true in the DMV where people may be moving in or out depending on the results of the election. Generally in our area, we see a pick up in the market right after the election.

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Economic Factors

Additionally, election years can also affect interest rates and overall economic conditions. The Federal Reserve and other financial institutions may adjust interest rates in response to election-related developments, which can influence mortgage rates and the overall cost of borrowing. Economic uncertainty during election years can also impact consumer confidence and spending patterns, which in turn can affect the real estate market.

Policy Changes

Similarly, certain policy proposals or changes in leadership may lead to shifts in housing-related regulations, tax incentives, or infrastructure spending, all of which can have a direct impact on the real estate market. Savvy investors and homebuyers may seek to take advantage of potential opportunities that arise from election-related changes. However, these are usually longer term factors and not a direct impact on the fall market.

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To the Winners Go the Spoils

What we’ve witnessed in our many years of selling real estate in this area is that there is money to be earned in the political space for Washingtonians in the private sector of politics. Especially for the political operatives of the winning parties, we often see people surfacing in November, December and January when bonuses for performance are awarded.

The Bottom Line

While election years can introduce a degree of uncertainty into the real estate market, they can also bring about opportunities for those who are well-informed and proactive. Here in DC, we typically see a slow early fall market and a more than typically robust end of the year.

Ultimately, the impact of an election year on the real estate market in the DMV will depend on a variety of factors, and it’s essential to approach any real estate decisions with careful consideration and a thorough understanding of the local context.

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If you’re looking to buy or sell in the DC Metro area, we’d love to help. Contact us today! Fill out the form below or call us directly 703-362-3221, email us at sue@thegoodhartgroup.com or allison@thegoodhartgroup.com.